By Jeese P. Greenstein, Alexander Haddow (Eds.)
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Additional info for Advances in Cancer Research, Vol. 3
Conclusion. I n a review of the evidence relating lung cancer to smoking, Gilliam (1954) concludes that: “Proof in the mathematical sense is unobtainable in dealing with medical problems. ’ Indirect experimental verification in humans, through country-wide discontinuance of smoking and subsequent determination of trends of the disease, could be practically accomplished only by informing the public that the disease is caused by cigarettes. If this is true, the procedure is unnecessary as an experiment.
If it is assumed that there is a linear relationship between strength of dose and cancer incidence-and the assumption is not necessarily justifiable, particularly for very small doses-it is possible to estimate the incidence of lung cancer which may be produced by normal atmospheric radiation. 333 per million. Evans assumed that the miners were exposed for 12 hours out of the 24, whereas people are exposed to normal atmospheric radiation throughout the day. More importantly, people are normally exposed from birth, 44 RICHARD DOLL whereas the miners were exposed, on the average, for 17 years from the age of 33 years.
Reproduced from a paper by Dr. E. C. ) From this point of view, it is difficult t o believe that the increase in mortality from lung cancer can have been directly due to pollution with chimney smoke or with petrol or oil fumes. On the one hand, the amount of coal consumed in the industrialized countries has not increased greatly, and the total amount of smoke pollution has probably decreased because of greater efficiency of combustion (in Britain, for example, coal consumption increased from about 165 million tons in 1900 to 206 million tons in 1953, but the amount burnt in gasworks and electricity-generating stations increased from 23 million tons in 1921* to 64 million tons in 1953.
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